UK Unveils Sweeping Asylum Reforms: A 20-Year Path to Settlement and a System Inspired by Denmark

LONDON, 28 January 2026 – The UK government has set out plans for what it describes as the most significant reform of the asylum system in a generation, moving towards a model of temporary protection and dramatically extending the wait for permanent settlement. The proposals, detailed in Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s policy paper “Restoring Order and Control” published in November 2025, mark a decisive shift away from the UK’s traditional offer of permanent refuge.

The Core of the New System: From Permanent Refuge to Temporary Protection

The centrepiece of the reform is the introduction of a new “core protection” status for recognised refugees. This replaces the current system where refugees are granted five years’ leave to remain, after which they can apply for indefinite leave to remain (settlement). Under the new model, protection will be granted for periods of just two and a half years at a time. Refugees will have to reapply repeatedly, with their need for protection reassessed each time. The government states the intention is to return people to their home countries if conditions are deemed to have improved sufficiently.

Most strikingly, the path to indefinite leave to remain will be extended to a baseline of 20 years under this core protection route—a fourfold increase on the current five-year wait. The government has cited Denmark as its inspiration, though the Danish system typically allows for settlement after eight years, subject to conditions.

Key Policy Changes at a Glance

A System Under Strain: The Backlog and Rising Costs

The proposed reforms come against a backdrop of a strained asylum system. Official data shows the asylum backlog—the number of people awaiting an initial decision—reached a record high in 2024, with over 175,000 people (including dependants) waiting at its peak. While the backlog had fallen to around 109,500 by March 2025, it remained high by historical standards.

This backlog has come at a significant financial cost. The Home Office’s spending on the asylum system rose to £5.4 billion in the 2023/24 financial year, driven largely by the reliance on hotel accommodation for asylum seekers. The government has pledged to end the use of all asylum hotels by the end of the current Parliament.

Furthermore, there is evidence that decision-making quality has suffered. The Home Office’s own internal quality checks for asylum decisions fell to a pass rate of just 52% in 2023/24. This has contributed to a growing appeals backlog in the immigration tribunals, which stood at over 50,000 cases by March 2025.

Public Opinion: Concern is High, But Views are Nuanced

Immigration has re-emerged as a top concern for the British public. In October 2024, 38% named it the most important issue facing the country—the highest level since the 2016 Brexit referendum. Polling by Ipsos in August 2025 found 48% saw it as a key issue.

However, public attitudes are complex. While a majority believe overall immigration is too high, views soften considerably when asked about specific groups. For example, a 2023 Migration Observatory survey found only 14% of people wanted to make it more difficult for Ukrainians fleeing war to come to the UK, compared to 37% who said the same for asylum seekers in general. There is also strong public support for immigration of key workers like doctors and nurses.

A significant challenge identified by pollsters and organisations like British Future is public misconception. Research indicates that people vastly overestimate the proportion of migrants who are asylum seekers, believing they make up over a third of immigration, when the actual figure is closer to 7%.

Criticism and Legal Challenges Ahead

The government’s proposals have been met with strong criticism from refugee rights organisations and legal experts. Amnesty International UK warned the plans constitute an “abandonment of basic principle,” making safety conditional and uncertain. The Greater Manchester Immigration Aid Unit (GMIAU) described the changes as an “unprecedented assault on refugee rights” that would leave people living in “terror” of being returned.

Legal commentators have pointed out that many of the proposals, such as temporary protection and restricted family reunion, were originally features of the Conservative government’s Nationality and Borders Act 2022. Key questions remain unanswered, including when the changes will take effect and whether they will apply to people already in the asylum system. The government has stated that further consultation and legislation will be required to implement many of the measures.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the ‘asylum backlog’?

The asylum backlog refers to the number of people who have applied for asylum in the UK and are waiting for an initial decision from the Home Office. It peaked at record levels in 2023 but had begun to fall by early 2025 due to increased decision-making. A separate and growing backlog exists in the appeals tribunal for refused cases.

How does the UK’s asylum intake compare to other European countries?

In 2024, the UK received the fifth-highest number of asylum applicants in Europe. When adjusted for population size, it ranked 17th. Germany, France, Spain, and Italy all received more asylum applications per capita than the UK that year.

What happens now with these proposals?

The November 2025 policy paper sets out the government’s intent. Many of the changes, such as moving from a duty to a power to provide asylum support, will require new primary legislation to be passed by Parliament. The plan to introduce a 20-year path to settlement will also be subject to further consultation. The reforms are likely to face significant legal and political challenges before they can be implemented.