The Donbas in 2026: A Region Gripped by War, Diplomacy, and Humanitarian Crisis
23 January 2026 – Nearly four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region remains the epicentre of a brutal war of attrition and a seemingly intractable diplomatic impasse. While Russian forces now control approximately 90% of the territory, fierce battles continue for key cities like Pokrovsk, and a devastating humanitarian crisis unfolds for millions of civilians caught in the crossfire or living under occupation.
The Current Military Stalemate
The frontline in Donbas has solidified into a grinding battle of incremental gains, primarily focused on the Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces, having made significant territorial advances throughout 2024 and 2025, continue to press Ukrainian defences. The strategic logistics hub of Pokrovsk and the nearby town of Myrnohrad have become focal points of intense combat as of late 2025 and early 2026.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that roughly 170,000 Russian soldiers are concentrated on seizing Pokrovsk, a city Russia has been attempting to capture for over a year. Russian General Valery Gerasimov claimed in late 2025 that Moscow controlled over 30% of Myrnohrad’s buildings. Kyiv consistently denies Russian claims of encirclement or full capture of these settlements, acknowledging severe pressure but insisting its units remain engaged in heavy, close-quarters fighting. The fall of either city would represent a significant strategic victory for Moscow, potentially accelerating advances toward other key Ukrainian-held Donbas cities like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Key Facts: The Donbas Region
| Fact | Detail |
|---|---|
| Region | Historical, cultural, and economic area encompassing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. |
| Pre-war Population (2001) | Approximately 58% ethnic Ukrainian, 38% ethnic Russian. |
| Conflict Start | War in Donbas began in April 2014 following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. |
| Full-Scale Invasion | Russia launched a renewed invasion on 24 February 2022, citing the pretext of “protecting” Donbas. |
| Current Control (Oct 2025) | Russian Armed Forces control an estimated 90% of the Donbas region. |
| Humanitarian Need (2025) | An estimated 12.7 million people in Ukraine need humanitarian assistance. |
The Diplomatic Impasse
Parallel to the battlefield, a complex diplomatic struggle continues. The core dispute remains the fate of the Donbas itself. Analysts, such as those at Chatham House, note the region is the “intractable issue” in talks. Russia demands Ukraine cede all the territory it currently holds in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts—which it illegally annexed in September 2022—as a precondition for a ceasefire. Ukraine’s position, backed by its European allies, is for a ceasefire along the current front lines, refusing to voluntarily withdraw from or cede sovereign territory.
US diplomatic efforts under President Donald Trump have sought to bridge this gap. Reports indicate initial US proposals aligned closely with Russian demands, including Ukrainian withdrawal from parts of Donbas. These were rejected by Kyiv and criticised by European partners. Subsequent negotiations have produced alternative frameworks involving potential security guarantees and the deployment of European troops to western Ukraine post-ceasefire as a deterrent, which Russia has rejected. As of January 2026, no breakthrough appears imminent, with both sides accusing the other of insincerity.
A Deepening Humanitarian Catastrophe
The human cost of the war in Donbas is staggering and continues to rise. The United Nations Human Rights Office reported a 37% increase in civilian casualties in the latter half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. A deliberate Russian campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has created a national emergency, with the country facing a 40% power capacity deficit during a severe winter.
As of January 2026, organisations like ACAPS report that attacks on energy facilities are among the highest levels since the war began, leaving thousands of apartment blocks in Kyiv and other cities without power, heat, or water in sub-zero temperatures. In frontline areas like Kherson and Donetsk, repeated strikes have destroyed critical infrastructure, leaving tens of thousands without essential services. The UN and groups like Amnesty International have documented widespread violations including torture, summary executions of prisoners of war, and the use of civilians as human shields, primarily by Russian forces.
Millions have been displaced, with 3.7 million people internally displaced within Ukraine and 6.9 million having fled the country entirely. Those who remain in occupied territories face forced Russification, pressure to accept Russian citizenship, and severe restrictions on their rights.
Historical Context: From 2014 to Full-Scale War
The conflict in Donbas did not begin in 2022. Following Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity and Russia’s annexation of Crimea in early 2014, pro-Russian unrest swept through the Donbas. With covert and later overt Russian military support, separatist groups proclaimed the “Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics” (DPR/LPR). This sparked an eight-year war along a static frontline, often termed a “frozen conflict,” which claimed over 14,000 lives before 2022.
Russia used this ongoing conflict as a primary justification for its full-scale invasion. On 21 February 2022, Russia recognised the independence of the DPR and LPR, effectively killing the Minsk peace agreements. Three days later, it launched its invasion, with the stated goal of “liberating” the entire Donbas.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Donbas?
The Donbas is a historical and industrial region in eastern Ukraine, primarily made up of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Its name is a portmanteau of “Donets Basin,” referring to its rich coal fields.
Why is the Donbas so important to Russia?
Russia cites cultural, linguistic, and historical ties to the region’s large Russian-speaking population. Strategically, control of Donbas provides a land bridge to Crimea, secures key industrial assets, and advances a long-term goal of weakening Ukrainian sovereignty.
Can Ukraine win back the Donbas?
As of early 2026, with Russia controlling 90% of the region and making incremental advances, a full Ukrainian military reconquest appears unlikely in the short to medium term. Kyiv’s stated goal is to first halt the Russian advance, then use diplomatic means to restore its territorial integrity.
What is the humanitarian situation for civilians?
It is dire. Civilians face constant shelling, targeted attacks on infrastructure, severe shortages of power and water (especially in winter), displacement, and widespread human rights abuses in occupied territories. Millions depend on international humanitarian aid for survival.