Referendum Debates Resurface as UK Approaches Political Crossroads

LONDON, 26 January 2026 – Nearly a decade after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, questions of constitutional destiny continue to shape British politics. With a general election required by August 2029 and Scottish Parliament elections scheduled for May 2026, debates over potential referendums on EU membership and Scottish independence have returned to the forefront, revealing a nation still grappling with the consequences of its 2016 decision.

The Lingering European Question

Despite Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s stated position against reopening Brexit negotiations, public appetite for revisiting the UK’s relationship with Europe appears significant. Research conducted by the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) in July 2024 found that 51% of Britons believed there should be a new referendum on EU membership within five years. When excluding those who said they didn’t know, the proportion in favour rose to 59%.

This sentiment is particularly strong among Labour voters, with two-thirds (66%) supporting another EU vote within five years. This creates a potential tension between the party’s leadership and its base, as 78% of those who voted Labour in 2024 would vote to rejoin the EU according to the same research.

Scottish Independence: A Persistent Divide

In Scotland, the constitutional question remains equally potent. A decade after rejecting independence by 55% to 45% in 2014, the nation remains almost evenly divided. Recent polling from November 2025 showed Scots who had decided how they would vote were split 49% to 51% on independence, with 13% remaining undecided.

The political landscape has shifted significantly since the Scottish National Party’s (SNP) disappointing performance in the 2024 UK general election, where they were reduced from 48 to just 9 seats. First Minister John Swinney has acknowledged his party “failed to convince people of the urgency of independence” and is rethinking strategy ahead of the 2026 Holyrood elections.

Key Facts: The Referendum Landscape

Legal and Political Hurdles

Any new UK-wide referendum would require an Act of Parliament, as referendums are not binding in British constitutional practice. The Scottish Parliament faces an additional barrier: the UK Supreme Court ruled in November 2022 that Holyrood does not have the power to legislate for an independence referendum without Westminster’s consent, as the Union is a reserved matter.

The mechanism used for the 2014 vote – a Section 30 order temporarily devolving the power – remains the established path for any future independence referendum. However, the current UK government has shown no inclination to grant such permission, with Labour, the Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats all opposing a second vote.

Changing Demographics and Attitudes

Demographic shifts are influencing the debate. By 2030, approximately one million young Scots will be eligible to vote who were too young to participate in the 2014 referendum. Similarly, on the European question, research consistently shows younger voters are more likely to support EU membership, suggesting demographic change could gradually shift the political calculus.

The 2024 general election also saw the extension of voting rights to British citizens living overseas for more than 15 years, adding another dimension to the electorate that will decide any future constitutional questions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can the Scottish Parliament hold an independence referendum without UK government approval?

No. The UK Supreme Court ruled in November 2022 that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to legislate for an independence referendum, as the Union is a reserved matter under the Scotland Act 1998. A Section 30 order from Westminster – as used in 2014 – would be required.

Is there likely to be another referendum on EU membership?

While public polling suggests significant appetite for another vote, the current Labour government has stated it does not intend to revisit the issue. Any referendum would require legislation passed by Parliament, making it a political decision that currently lacks government support.

What was the “People’s Vote” campaign?

This was a campaign during the 2017-2019 Parliament that advocated for a second referendum on the Brexit withdrawal agreement. It was supported by various politicians and groups seeking to break the parliamentary deadlock over Theresa May’s deal, but ultimately no such referendum was held before the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020.

How does the UK’s referendum process work?

Referendums in the UK are not constitutionally binding. Each requires specific legislation passed by Parliament to determine the question, franchise, and conduct. The Electoral Commission oversees the process and regulates campaign spending. Only three UK-wide referendums have been held: on EC membership in 1975, the Alternative Vote in 2011, and EU membership in 2016.